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Space Weather Observations, Alerts, and Forecast

Forecast text

Product: 3-Day Forecast - Issued: 2024 May 18 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center.

Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 6 (NOAA Scale G2).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 18-May 20 2024 is 4.00 (below NOAA Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown May 18-May 20 2024

May 18May 19May 20
00-03UT3.673.332.67
03-06UT3.333.332.33
06-09UT2.334.003.67
09-12UT3.334.003.00
12-15UT3.002.673.00
15-18UT1.672.333.33
18-21UT1.672.004.00
21-00UT2.332.674.00

Rationale: There is a chance for G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm conditions on 19-20 May due to possible glancing blows from CMEs that left the Sun on 15 and 17 May.

Solar Radiation Activity Observation

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 18-May 20 2024

May 18May 19May 20
S1 or greater10%10%10%

Rationale: There is a slight chance for the greater than 10 MeV protons reaching S1 (Minor) levels on 18-20 May due to the flare potential of Region 3685.

Radio Blackout Activity

Radio blackouts reaching the R2 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at May 17 2024 2108 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for May 18-May 20 2024

May 18May 19May 20
R1-R240%40%40%
R3 or greater10%10%10%

Rationale: Solar activity is expected to be low with a good chance for further M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) and a slight chance for an X-class flare (R3/Strong or greater) on 18-20 May.



Sun Images


eit 171 eit 195 eit 284 eit 304
 

Images: From left to right: EIT 171, EIT 195, EIT 284, EIT 304 EIT (Extreme ultraviolet Imaging Telescope) images the solar atmosphere at several wavelengths, and therefore, shows solar material at different temperatures. In the images taken at 304 Angstrom the bright material is at 60,000 to 80,000 degrees Kelvin. In those taken at 171 Angstrom, at 1 million degrees. 195 Angstrom images correspond to about 1.5 million Kelvin, 284 Angstrom to 2 million degrees. The hotter the temperature, the higher you look in the solar atmosphere.

 
SDO/HMI
Continuum
SDO/HMI
Magnetogram
LASCO C2 LASCO C3
 

The MDI (Michelson Doppler Imager) images shown here are taken in the continuum near the Ni I 6768 Angstrom line. The most prominent features are the sun spots.
 

LASCO (Large Angle Spectrometric Coronagraph) is able to take images of the solar corona by blocking the light coming directly from the Sun with an occulter disk, creating an artificial eclipse within the instrument itself.

more information for more information

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Introduction Movie


Conditions on the Sun and in the solar wind, magnetosphere, ionosphere and thermosphere that can influence the performance and reliability of space-borne and ground-based technological systems and can endanger human life or health. This introduction movie in the English language will open on a new tab/window when you click on the image below.



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Credits:


Space Weather Images and Information (excluded from copyright) courtesy of:
NOAA / NWS Space Weather Prediction Center, Mauna Loa Solar Observatory (HAO/NCAR), and SOHO (ESA & NASA).


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