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Space Weather Observations, Alerts, and Forecast

Forecast text

Product: 3-Day Forecast - Issued: 2025 Feb 09 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center.

Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Feb 09-Feb 11 2025 is 5.00 (NOAA Scale G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Feb 09-Feb 11 2025

Feb 09Feb 10Feb 11
00-03UT1.335.00 (G1)4.00
03-06UT2.004.333.33
06-09UT2.003.673.33
09-12UT2.333.332.67
12-15UT2.002.672.67
15-18UT2.333.003.00
18-21UT3.673.673.33
21-00UT4.004.003.67

Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm conditions are likely on 10 Feb due to CH HSS influences.

Solar Radiation Activity Observation

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Feb 09-Feb 11 2025

Feb 09Feb 10Feb 11
S1 or greater20%20%20%

Rationale: There is a slight chance for S1 (Minor) solar radiation storms over 09-11 Feb.

Radio Blackout Activity

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Feb 09-Feb 11 2025

Feb 09Feb 10Feb 11
R1-R260%60%60%
R3 or greater10%10%10%

Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are likely, with a slight chance for R3 or greater events, over 09-11 Feb.



Sun Images


eit 171 eit 195 eit 284 eit 304
 

Images: From left to right: EIT 171, EIT 195, EIT 284, EIT 304 EIT (Extreme ultraviolet Imaging Telescope) images the solar atmosphere at several wavelengths, and therefore, shows solar material at different temperatures. In the images taken at 304 Angstrom the bright material is at 60,000 to 80,000 degrees Kelvin. In those taken at 171 Angstrom, at 1 million degrees. 195 Angstrom images correspond to about 1.5 million Kelvin, 284 Angstrom to 2 million degrees. The hotter the temperature, the higher you look in the solar atmosphere.

 
SDO/HMI
Continuum
SDO/HMI
Magnetogram
LASCO C2 LASCO C3
 

The MDI (Michelson Doppler Imager) images shown here are taken in the continuum near the Ni I 6768 Angstrom line. The most prominent features are the sun spots.
 

LASCO (Large Angle Spectrometric Coronagraph) is able to take images of the solar corona by blocking the light coming directly from the Sun with an occulter disk, creating an artificial eclipse within the instrument itself.

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Introduction Movie


Conditions on the Sun and in the solar wind, magnetosphere, ionosphere and thermosphere that can influence the performance and reliability of space-borne and ground-based technological systems and can endanger human life or health. This introduction movie in the English language will open on a new tab/window when you click on the image below.



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Credits:


Space Weather Images and Information (excluded from copyright) courtesy of:
NOAA / NWS Space Weather Prediction Center, Mauna Loa Solar Observatory (HAO/NCAR), and SOHO (ESA & NASA).


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