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Space Weather Observations, Alerts, and Forecast

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Product: 3-Day Forecast - Issued: 2024 Dec 12 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center.

Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Dec 12-Dec 14 2024 is 1.67 (below NOAA Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Dec 12-Dec 14 2024

	Dec 12	Dec 13	Dec 14
00-03UT	1.67	1.67	1.67
03-06UT	1.67	1.67	1.67
06-09UT	1.33	1.67	1.33
09-12UT	1.33	1.33	1.33
12-15UT	1.33	1.33	1.67
15-18UT	1.33	1.33	1.33
18-21UT	1.67	1.33	1.33
21-00UT	1.33	1.33	1.33

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

Solar Radiation Activity Observation

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Dec 12-Dec 14 2024

	Dec 12	Dec 13	Dec 14
S1 or greater	5%	5%	5%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.

Radio Blackout Activity

Radio blackouts reaching the R2 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Dec 11 2024 1549 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Dec 12-Dec 14 2024

	Dec 12	Dec 13	Dec 14
R1-R2	60%	60%	60%
R3 or greater	5%	5%	5%

Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are likely on 12-14 Dec based primarily on the flare potential of Regions 3917, 3920 and 3922.

Sun Images

eit 171	eit 195	eit 284	eit 304


Images: From left to right: EIT 171, EIT 195, EIT 284, EIT 304 EIT (Extreme ultraviolet Imaging Telescope) images the solar atmosphere at several wavelengths, and therefore, shows solar material at different temperatures. In the images taken at 304 Angstrom the bright material is at 60,000 to 80,000 degrees Kelvin. In those taken at 171 Angstrom, at 1 million degrees. 195 Angstrom images correspond to about 1.5 million Kelvin, 284 Angstrom to 2 million degrees. The hotter the temperature, the higher you look in the solar atmosphere.

SDO/HMI Continuum	SDO/HMI Magnetogram	LASCO C2	LASCO C3


The MDI (Michelson Doppler Imager) images shown here are taken in the continuum near the Ni I 6768 Angstrom line. The most prominent features are the sun spots.		LASCO (Large Angle Spectrometric Coronagraph) is able to take images of the solar corona by blocking the light coming directly from the Sun with an occulter disk, creating an artificial eclipse within the instrument itself.
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Introduction Movie

Conditions on the Sun and in the solar wind, magnetosphere, ionosphere and thermosphere that can influence the performance and reliability of space-borne and ground-based technological systems and can endanger human life or health. This introduction movie in the English language will open on a new tab/window when you click on the image below.