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Space Weather Observations, Alerts, and Forecast

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Product: 3-Day Forecast - Issued: 2024 Sep 09 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center.

Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Sep 09-Sep 11 2024 is 6.00 (NOAA Scale G2).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Sep 09-Sep 11 2024

	Sep 09	Sep 10	Sep 11
00-03UT	2.67	2.67	5.00 (G1)
03-06UT	1.67	2.33	4.33
06-09UT	2.33	2.00	4.67 (G1)
09-12UT	2.00	2.00	3.00
12-15UT	2.00	4.00	2.67
15-18UT	2.33	5.33 (G1)	2.00
18-21UT	2.33	4.67 (G1)	2.67
21-00UT	2.67	6.00 (G2)	2.33

Rationale: G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storming is likely on 10-11 Sep due to arrival of a CME that left the sun on 08 Sep.

Solar Radiation Activity Observation

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was above S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Sep 09-Sep 11 2024

	Sep 09	Sep 10	Sep 11
S1 or greater	75%	50%	20%

Rationale: The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to reach the S1 (Minor) threshold on 09 Sep. There is a chance for levels to continue above the threshold on 10 Sep followed by a slight chance on 11 Sep.

Radio Blackout Activity

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Sep 09 2024 0545 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Sep 09-Sep 11 2024

	Sep 09	Sep 10	Sep 11
R1-R2	55%	55%	55%
R3 or greater	15%	15%	15%

Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are likely, with a slight chance for R3 or greater events, over 09-11 Sep.

Sun Images

eit 171	eit 195	eit 284	eit 304


Images: From left to right: EIT 171, EIT 195, EIT 284, EIT 304 EIT (Extreme ultraviolet Imaging Telescope) images the solar atmosphere at several wavelengths, and therefore, shows solar material at different temperatures. In the images taken at 304 Angstrom the bright material is at 60,000 to 80,000 degrees Kelvin. In those taken at 171 Angstrom, at 1 million degrees. 195 Angstrom images correspond to about 1.5 million Kelvin, 284 Angstrom to 2 million degrees. The hotter the temperature, the higher you look in the solar atmosphere.

SDO/HMI Continuum	SDO/HMI Magnetogram	LASCO C2	LASCO C3


The MDI (Michelson Doppler Imager) images shown here are taken in the continuum near the Ni I 6768 Angstrom line. The most prominent features are the sun spots.		LASCO (Large Angle Spectrometric Coronagraph) is able to take images of the solar corona by blocking the light coming directly from the Sun with an occulter disk, creating an artificial eclipse within the instrument itself.
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Introduction Movie

Conditions on the Sun and in the solar wind, magnetosphere, ionosphere and thermosphere that can influence the performance and reliability of space-borne and ground-based technological systems and can endanger human life or health. This introduction movie in the English language will open on a new tab/window when you click on the image below.